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If swing-state Nevada goes for Donald Trump in 2024, a decisive role may be played by a critical but widely under-examined constituency: ex-Californians who fled spiraling West Coast leftism and are now nudging Nevada rightward, Politico reports.   

Early voting data from Nevada has already sent Republican hopes of securing the state’s six electoral votes soaring. Through Thursday — the penultimate day of early voting — the number of registered Republicans who’ve cast a ballot exceeds the Democrats’ tally by 47,300, or 5.1 percent. That’s a complete turning of the tables, as it’s usually Democrats who’ve banked a majority of the votes before Election Day. The GOP has built that lead not through the mail, but by a level of Republican in-person turnout that veteran Nevada political reporter and full-on leftist Jon Ralston has called “startling.” 

President Trump concludes his rally in Henderson, Nevada—walks off the stage, heads to the motorcade, and is greeted by some of the strong and intelligent women of @TeamTrump, before we all head to the airport and go wheels up to Arizona… pic.twitter.com/tLwr4AhfRw

— Dan Scavino Jr.🇺🇸🦅 (@DanScavino) November 1, 2024

California transplants represent a huge proportion of Nevada’s population — more than 20 percent. That share has seen heavy recent growth, thanks to an inflow of more than 150,000 Californians just since the political and cultural turning point year of 2020. That year was marked by a tyrannical and disastrously counterproductive “public health” response to Covid-19, and a major acceleration of woke ideology. Needless to say, California has been the epitome of those dynamics.

Between 2020 and 2023, the Nevada Democratic Party’s lead in registered voters dropped from 111,000 to 71,000, and the number of non-affiliated voters has soared. Politico sums it up the implications: 

In a state [where the presidential race] was decided by less than 34,000 votes in 2020, a bloc of highly motivated, California-hating ex-Californians with an axe to grind could play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome this year.  

Not every person who moves from California to Nevada does so in search of a more conservative government and culture. It seems evident, however, that a majority of recent transplants fit that description. Politico profiled a variety of ex-Californians in Nevada who are refugees of rampant Golden State leftism, including: 

• A business-owner who feels far more appreciated in Nevada. “In California, you were just a business. Here, you’re somebody that’s bringing jobs to the community,” said Reno candy-maker Joe Dutra. “[Nevada’s government] was easy to work with, as compared to doing something in California.”
• A farmer who saved $200,000 a year in state income taxes by crossing the border, and used two years of the savings to treat himself to a McLaren. “California just got to be a communist state,” said Jim DeMartini. “[It was] Kamala Harris, it was Governor Newsom, it was a leftist, anti-business legislature who just felt they had to control everything. They even went so far as banning straws.”
• A former California state legislator who’s now in the Nevada Senate, who said the Harris-Trump matchup strikes home for ex-Californians. “I think the theme of the message is, do you want to ‘California’ the United States? It’s the way cancer metastasizes,” says Sen. Jeff Stone. “People were tired of it, and so they’re coming here, and they’re telling their neighbors why they moved here.”   

Further comments from locals confirmed Politico’s findings:

Reno lawyer Megan said “California is a lost cause, Nevada still offers hope for upholding the constitution.”

Lisa, a sales and marketing professional, moved from California to Nevada a few years ago as she saw the writing on the wall: “I will vote to ensure that Nevada continues to protect individual freedom and liberty.“

“Taxes,” said Melissa, a business owner who moved to Nevada from California in the Spring. “California’s super-majority liberal legislature will leave business owners penniless as it cranks up the welfare-dependency culture. Nevada supports the small business owner by allowing you to make decisions on how your money is spent.”

While Nevada’s six electoral votes may seem relatively insignificant, they could prove decisive. There’s even a scenario where Nevada could help Trump reach the required 270 electoral votes without winning Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. If Trump wins the swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina and can pull an upset in New Hampshire — which RealClearPolitics just switched from “leans Harris” to a toss-up — he could score 272 electoral votes without capturing any of the three “Blue Wall” swing states:  

The Nevada story is just one facet of an ongoing mega-trend where Americans are picking up and moving to states that better match their political and cultural philosophies — and nudging states in their preferred direction as they do. Regardless of who wins the presidency in 2024, look for that trend to accelerate in 2025.