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San Francisco is gearing up to shut down 9% of its public schools in a desperate move to fix a massive budget deficit. With student enrollment plummeting and pandemic relief funds drying up, the city is set to close or merge 11 out of its 121 schools, leaving the future of thousands of students and teachers hanging in the balance.

The proposal, which was announced late Tuesday, comes as the school district faces a whopping $113 million in cuts by 2026, or risk a dreaded state takeover. “Without a balanced budget and a plan to consolidate our resources, we risk a state takeover,” warned Superintendent Matt Wayne, adding that such a takeover would “further deplete resources directed to our schools, erode our collective decision-making power, and likely compound educational disparities for our most vulnerable students.”

The schools on the chopping block serve about 2,000 kids, while another two will merge with other locations, according to local reports. And it’s not just the school closures – San Francisco’s school district has already been slashing jobs and cutting back on school supplies. Things could get worse when the final list of schools is voted on next month by the school board, Bloomberg reports.

This is the latest blow to a city grappling with skyrocketing homelessness and a fentanyl crisis. San Francisco’s public school enrollment has plunged by over 4,000 students in the last seven years – costing the district $80 million. By 2032, they’re expecting to lose another 4,600 students thanks to falling birth rates and demographic shifts.

Feeding the ‘Doom Loop’

The planned school closures are more than just a budgetary issue – they are a reflection of the larger economic “doom loop” San Francisco finds itself trapped in. As described by the San Francisco Chronicle, the city’s economic ecosystem is spiraling as the decline of core public services like schools accelerates a broader exodus of residents and businesses.

Thanks to crime, filth, and the pandemic – downtown SF has seen a sharp reduction in foot traffic as remote work has left office buildings and businesses empty. This shift has eroded the city’s tax base, leading to budget shortfalls across vital services. Now, with the closure of schools, families may be even more likely to leave the city, taking their children and spending power with them.

The doom loop is driven by a vicious cycle: diminished public services push people and businesses away, shrinking the tax revenue the city relies on to fund those very services. The closure of schools, much like the rise in homelessness and the overdose epidemic, threatens to further compound the fact that San Francisco is a city in decline, locked in a downward spiral.

As San Francisco’s public institutions falter, the question looms – how much longer can the city sustain these losses before it hits a tipping point?